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中國投資美房債巨虧被質疑

宋鴻兵 · 2008-07-28 · 來源:烏有之鄉
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烏有之鄉編者注:本站7月20號轉發的《東方日報》的《劉夢熊:我為人民鼓與呼》 《劉夢熊:質問中央財金當局》 《柳扶風:不像中圈套那么簡單》三篇文章被勒令刪除,同時還命令刪除時寒冰、水火等人相關文章。然而中南海對劉夢熊政協委員的意見是相當重視的,“中南海當天就作出指令,指派外交部駐香港特區特派員公署,當天緊急找劉夢熊約談,了解他的想法,聽取他的建議”。現在這三篇文章在其他很多網站仍可以看到。

http://bbs.thol.net/redirect.php?tid=16350&goto=lastpost&sid=AWxQtf

 

 

宋鴻兵:港區全國政協委員、金融專家劉夢熊表達了我們的一貫主張,即金融系統也應當與其它行業一樣實行問責制。對重大失誤要向全國人民有個交待。要追究有關責任人的法律責任。劉夢熊質疑道:中國買的是高風險,比例又這么大,這太不尋常了。這是誰建議這樣做的,誰論證的,誰拍板的,誰批準的,誰去實施的,其中究竟有沒有黑幕,按國際金融交易慣例,購買債券、股票的中介有傭金可收,傭金是百分之二點五,三萬億的百分之二點五,就是七百五十億,所得的傭金流向如何,有沒有人以權謀私,中飽私囊?問得好!《貨幣戰爭〉在中國金融界是人所共知。書中早就警告了“二房”的巨大風險。無論是用“無知”或是“愚蠢”都不能解釋為什么有關方面不但不規避風險,反而頂風作案,拼命加大對美國垃圾債券的投資力度。唯一的解釋是這里有鬼。但還并不僅僅是中飽私囊這么簡單!而更可能是里應外合搞垮中國的總體戰略的一個組成部分。這個案子國家安全部一旦介入,將不難發現其中的奧秘。

中國投資美房債巨虧被質疑

 http://www.yzzk.com/cfm/Content_Archive.cfm?Channel=ag&Path=2311530102/30ag1a.cfm

 亞洲周刊江迅/港區全國政協委員、金融專家劉夢熊撰寫《我為人民鼓與呼》一文,引發各界關注,中南海亦派人找他問計。劉夢熊認為,中國外匯儲備投資美國「房利美」、「房貸美」失誤,應追究責任。

美國聯邦國民抵押貸款協會(Federal National Mortgage Association,簡稱Fannie Mae即「房利美」)、聯邦住房貸款抵押公司(Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation,簡稱Freddie Mac即「房貸美」),這一對略帶脂粉氣譯名的姐妹花,正成為中國金融界關注的焦點:為什么中國外匯儲備會經不起這對姐妹花(下稱「兩房」)的誘惑,竟跌入陷阱?

七月十七日,香港區全國政協委員、金融專家劉夢熊撰寫的《我為人民鼓與呼》一文,在香港三家媒體以整版篇幅發表,旋即成為數百家網上論壇的熱點。劉夢熊疾言厲色質問中央財金當局有關拍板人:你們這班敗家子哪里來這么大的膽子,拿國家人民的錢,來買天文數字的「兩房」股票。現在「兩房」基本上已破產,你們如何向全國人民交代?「如此離譜決策有沒有黑幕,人大常委會應立即組織特別調查組徹查,追究責任

劉文發表后,猶如鬧市中引爆炸彈,引起社會各界,特別是金融乃至經濟界強烈反響,在北京財經當局也引發了一場「地震」,中南海當天就作出指令,指派外交部駐香港特區特派員公署,當天緊急找劉夢熊約談,了解他的想法,聽取他的建議。

劉夢熊在《我為人民鼓與呼》中說:「美國兩家『巨無霸』抵押機構『兩房』崩盤引致的金融風暴震撼全球,各國股市插水式下跌。見慣風浪的金融大鱷索羅斯也驚呼是他『一生中最為嚴重的金融危機』。令人震驚的是,據通訊社報道,中國竟然是『兩房』名列榜首的外國債權人,一共持有涉及該兩間公司約三千七百六十三億美元(相當于二萬九千三百二十八億港元)債眞,約占中國外匯儲備總額百分之二十一。這簡直是一件匪夷所思的天大丑聞!」

有香港學者認為,「像劉夢熊那樣以全國政協委員身份公開提出質疑的做法,歷來少見」;內地有網友留言說:「看來又一個敢言的政協委員要下臺了」;有親友提醒劉夢熊:「共產黨給你那么高的榮譽,你還要發表這么尖銳的意見,還想不想混?」七月二十日,劉夢熊接受亞洲周刊訪問時說:「如此離譜決策,如此彌天大禍,試問,身為參政議政的全國政協委員,身為置身金融界三十多年的專業人士,如果噤若寒蟬,對得起人民的囑托和自己的良知嗎?」

他說:「民族英雄林則徐有詩云『茍利國家身死已,豈因禍福避趨之』。二零零八年是彭德懷大將軍一百一十周年誕辰,他當年在廬山會議犯顏直諫,發出『我為人民鼓與呼』,看到對國家和人民不利的就要挺身而出。作為全國政協委員,不只是做『擦鞋委員』、『鼓掌委員』,政府做得好,應該鼓掌,但財經當局捅了這么大的漏子,犯這么低級而又嚴重的錯誤,我能不挺身而出嗎?」以下是訪談摘要。

三萬億資金投放「兩房」,問題要害何在?

美國「兩房」崩盤震撼全球。而中國財金當局將五分之一以上外匯儲備即三千七百六十三億美元投入「兩房」,成為最大外國債權人,這一愚不可及的做法更是震驚中外。從事這一行都知道,怎么能把一個國家的外匯儲備的百分之二十多集中投在一個地方,這是異乎尋常的。要害是兩個原則。

哪兩個原則?

外匯儲備不是一個國家的凈資產。每一美元的外匯儲備都要央行用相應人民幣兌換回來,與商業銀行管理的資產沒分別。舉例說,你在北京,是中國人民銀行,我在澳大利亞匯了一美元到你帳上,國家戶口就多了一美元外匯儲備,但你到銀行拿一美元時,中國人民銀行花八元人民幣給你兌換這一美金。你要去日本公干,又把八元人民幣換回一元美金帶出國,那外匯儲備就變成零了


因此,正看是資產,反看是負債,是一種國際收支帳而已。從理論上講,要準備外匯儲備中有相當多熱錢和外資是要流走的。外匯儲備不是你的凈資產,只是存在你銀行里而已,人家可以存,也可以提,存在你那里,所有權、支配權不在你那里,你只有管理權而已。因此外匯儲備的投資就不能有風險,更不能有高風險,安全第一,穩健至上。這是一個原則。第二是分散原則。通常說有美元、歐元、日圓,有黃金、白銀,有債券,有對沖活動,總之要套利,十拿十穩。安全、分散都是公認原則。

其它國家的外匯儲備有沒有投入「兩房」?

同樣是亞洲大國印度,它同樣是金磚四國之一,印度「兩房」債眞持有量才二千三百萬美元而已,人家是意思意思,聊勝于無,中國是印度的一萬六千倍,差不多是三萬億港幣。這樣投進「兩房」太沒道理了,不能只集中在一個菜籃里,這是金科玉律。外匯儲備投資原則是安全第一,穩健至上,比重分散,結構多元

你提出全國人大常委會應立即組織特別調查組徹查并追究責任,理據何在?

中國買的是高風險,比例又這么大,這太不尋常了。這是誰建議這樣做的,誰論證的,誰拍板的,誰批準的,誰去實施的,其中究竟有沒有黑幕,按國際金融交易慣例,購買債券、股票的中介有傭金可收,傭金是百分之二點五,三萬億的百分之二點五,就是七百五十億,所得的傭金流向如何,有沒有人以權謀私,中飽私囊我不明白,究竟是外匯管理局的問題,還是財政部的問題,還是中國人民銀行的問題?外匯儲備的投資運作有哪些專家論證?決策民主化科學化如何體現?流程如何?有無權力制約機制設置?這么大損失,如果有黑幕的話,有里通外國的話,是不可饒恕的犯罪。應有人對此丟烏紗帽甚至人頭落地。中央應從決策、操作乃至監管、制約機制,直到外儲投資方向、原則來個通盤檢討。

中國政府目前又能做什么?

當務之急是「補鑊」。首先,中國政府應緊急動員外交系統,聯絡日本、新加坡、開曼群島、盧森堡、韓國等眾多「兩房」債券受害國財金負責人和政府首腦「大串連」,邀集他們統一立場和行動,要求美國政府對「兩房」負起監管和承擔之責,為「兩房」五萬億美元債券作擔保,促其維護美國國際信用

其次,中國政府和「兩房」債券受害國應合作,以美國投資者也握有三萬七千億美元「兩房」債券為由,游說美國國會議員向政府施壓,挽救「兩房」免于破產。第三,中央政府應立即對相關部門和責任人徹查究責。第四,目前掌管國家外匯儲備的機構應該立即改組,要依照嚴格監管、有效制約、充分論證、高效實施、防范風險的原則重組外儲管理機構


外匯儲備的投資必須恪守「安全第一,穩健至上,比重分散,結構多元」原則。第五,中國是「世界工廠」,對石油、煤炭、鐵礦、銅礦、木材、橡膠、紙漿、小麥等大宗物資有強勁的長期需求,但中國實際上「地大物不博」,因此,外儲投資應向能源、礦產等海外并購傾斜,保障國家可持續發展。

附文:

 

紐約時報:“二房”的生死抉擇(看完令我倒抽一口冷氣)

貨幣戰爭:看完這篇文章令我倒抽一口冷氣!WILLIAM POOLE可不是一般的評論作家,他可是美聯儲的重量級人物,同時還是CATO這種極高級別的精英俱樂部成員。我不認為他僅僅是在發表個人見解!他的思路就是讓“二房”在5-10年內“安樂死”,同時死去的還有1.3萬億美元的外國債權人的利益!!!其中也包括中國的3760億美元“二房”的白條。這是一種聞所未聞的賴帳行為,也是一種徹頭徹尾的惡意欺詐!讀過《Atlas Shrugged》的朋友(如果你還沒看過,我鄭重向你推薦該書)可能會直覺地感受到1957年出版的這部經典名著,早已把今天轉移財富的手段揭示得一清二楚。在特定的歷史時刻,國際銀行家將通過“自我摧毀”的方式偷竊社會財富。這是一種匪夷所思的思路,卻又完全合乎邏輯。

 

中國必須認清對手的戰略意圖,決不能讓“二房”輕易破產和賴帳!“二房”的白條必須由美國財政部買單,如果達不成該意圖,則公開宣稱將大舉拋售美國國債,實施金融戰略威懾!

 

美國次貸危機可能本質上就是一場規模龐大的和史無前例的“賴帳和偷竊”的金融騙局!!!

 

Too Big to Fail, or to Survive

Published: July 27, 2008
 

CRITICS of the Congressional housing package complain that we are now committing taxpayers to huge new outlays to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That view is wrong: Congressional inaction over the past 15 years had already committed taxpayers to the bailout.

Congress could and should have required Fannie and Freddie — which enjoy a peculiar and highly advantageous status as quasi-public agencies and quasi-private companies — to maintain more capital, but didn’t. Now the costs from Congressional inaction are becoming painfully apparent, and they cannot be avoided. To permit the two mortgage giants to default would set off a worldwide crisis. But we can decide what should become of Freddie and Fannie after this crisis. The best option is one getting little mention in Washington: get rid of them.

Because the government cannot permit Fannie and Freddie to default, their obligations are part and parcel of the full-faith-and-credit obligations of the United States. Thus, the national debt, usually viewed as the $5 trillion held by the public, is really $10 trillion once we add the Fannie and Freddie obligations and the mortgage-backed securities they guarantee.

For now, the Congressional Budget Office has entered a “place holder” of $25 billion to cover the bailout costs over the next two years but recognizes that this is a guess. The important issue is not the 2009 outlay, but the total that will be required eventually. Even if the two firms are technically insolvent, the market will continue to buy their obligations readily, for it understands that they are fully backed by the government.

Given this faith on the part of the marketplace, there will be no immediate catastrophe that would force the federal government to provide additional capital to Fannie and Freddie. The situation is similar to the one in the 1980s, when many savings and loans were technically insolvent yet had no difficulty attracting deposits, as they were covered by federal deposit insurance. So the federal government has the option of delaying any ultimate resolution of the Fannie-Freddie mess, as it did with the savings and loans 20 years ago, in hopes that the two giants can dig themselves out of the hole. Still, it seems more likely that — again, just as in the 1980s — the longer we delay, the higher the eventual taxpayer cost will be.

Freddie Mac, according to its own fair-value accounts for the end of March, is technically insolvent — the estimated market value of its liabilities is greater than the estimated market value of its assets. Fannie Mae has a small positive net worth. In coming quarters, these figures may deteriorate because of accounting adjustments (some of the assets are questionable) and continuing defaults on mortgages. The eventual losses could run to several hundred billion dollars.

Whatever the amount of the bailout, even if “only” $25 billion, the real question is not immediate survival of the loan giants but their long-term future. Instead of being regarded as too big to fail, we should look at them as too big to liquidate quickly.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not essential to the mortgage market; if they were put out of business in an orderly fashion over 5 to 10 years, the market would pick up the business they abandon. Fannie and Freddie exist to provide guarantees for mortgage-backed securities trading in the market. The business is simply insurance.

There are lots of insurance businesses around: property, auto, life and many others. These markets work fine without any government-sponsored enterprises. They are not highly concentrated into a small number of dominant players whose failure would threaten the entire economy; rather, lots of companies compete and spread the risk. Indeed, there are well-established firms in mortgage insurance, but their growth has been stunted by the special advantages Fannie and Freddie enjoy.

In fact, there has already been a test case for how the mortgage market would function without Fannie and Freddie. After an accounting scandal in 2005, regulators severely constrained their activities. The nation’s total residential mortgage debt outstanding rose by $1.176 trillion in that year, even though Fannie’s and Freddie’s stakes rose by only $169 billion, just 14.4 percent of the total. In essence, the market barely noticed that the two agencies’ private competitors were providing 85 percent of the increase in mortgage debt in 2005.

There are more general economic reasons for liquidating Fannie and Freddie, the biggest being that it is very dangerous to maintain such a large role in any market for only two operators. Markets work best when numerous firms compete against each other.

And then there is moral hazard. Knowing they had a federal backstop, Fannie and Freddie held too little capital and the market financed their activities at interest rates very close to those enjoyed by the government. Now we are living through the result. Does it make sense to reconstitute them so that they can engage in a repeat performance?

Some believe that tighter regulation is the answer. I am skeptical of that because I know the extent to which the regulatory system is tied up in Fannie’s and Freddie’s political activities. I find it deeply troubling that Fannie and Freddie, essentially in receivership to the secretary of the Treasury today, continue to employ lobbyists and hand out campaign contributions to influence the legislative debate over their own futures. Fannie and Freddie paid out more than $170 million to lobbyists over the last decade — more than General Electric spent. Government departments cannot hire lobbyists or give money to campaigns — why should Fannie and Freddie, now wards of the government, be permitted to do so?

The long-term health of the mortgage market is too important to be left to only two firms. If Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can survive as vigorous competitors without the special government privileges they’ve long enjoyed, fine. But if they insist on coming back to life as public-private hybrids with all sorts of unfair federal advantages, we’ll only be setting ourselves up for more disasters. The wisest move, in the end, is to carefully let them wither away.

William Poole, a fellow at the Cato Institute, was the chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis from 1998 to 2008.

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