TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's first annual trade deficit in more than 30 years calls into question how much longer the country can rely on exports to help finance a huge public debt without having to turn to fickle foreign investors.
日本在超過30年后首次年貿易額出現赤字（令人）提出了質疑：這個國家還有多長時間可以靠出口來幫助一個巨大的公共債務融資，而非不得不靠變幻無常的外國投資者。
The aftermath of the March earthquake raised fuel import costs while slowing global growth and the yen's strength hit exports, data released on Wednesday showed, swinging the 2011 trade balance into deficit.
三月地震的余波使得燃料進口成本上升，同時全球經濟增長放緩和日元的強勢也打擊出口，周三公布的數據顯示了其2011年的貿易余額在動蕩中出現赤字。
Few analysts expect Japan to immediately run a deficit in the current account, which includes trade and returns on the country's huge portfolio of investments abroad. A steady inflow of profits and capital gains from overseas still outweighs the trade deficit.
很少有分析師會預期日本將立即在帳面上出現赤字，這其中包含了貿易和國家巨大的海外投資組合回報。一個穩定的利潤流入和來自海外的資本收益仍然超過了貿易赤字。
But the trade figures underscore a broader trend of Japan's declining global competitive edge and a rapidly ageing population, compounding the immediate problem of increased reliance on fuel imports due to the loss of nuclear power.
但貿易數字突出了日本全球競爭力的下降和人口迅速老齡化（的影響）更加廣泛的一個趨勢，并參雜了眼前由于損失了核電使得對進口燃料的依賴增加的問題。
Only four of the country's 54 nuclear power reactors are running due to public safety fears following the March disaster.
由于三月的災難引起對公眾安全的擔心，全國54個核電廠只有4個正在運行。
 "What it means is that the time when Japan runs out of savings -- 'Sayonara net creditor country' -- that point is coming closer," said Jesper Koll, head of equities research at JPMorgan in Japan.
“它（貿易赤字）意味著日本耗盡儲蓄的時間 - ”再見凈債權國“ - 這個時間點越來越接近。” 摩根大通日本股票研究主管加斯帕科爾表示。
"It means Japan becomes dependent on global savings to fund its deficit and either the currency weakens or interest rates rise."
“這（日本儲蓄耗盡）意味著日本將依賴于全球儲蓄以支付其赤字，使得貨幣疲軟或利率上升。”
That prospect could give added impetus to Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's push to double Japan's 5 percent sales tax in two stages by October 2015 to fund the bulging social security costs of a fast-ageing society.
這種前景可能進一步推動總理大臣野田佳彥推行分兩步在2015年10月時提高日本5%的消費稅2倍（注：中國只有15類商品有消費稅，每個類別的稅率不同，一般已經直接打入價格里面了）以支付因快速老齡化社會而膨脹的社會保障費用。             
The biggest opposition party, although agreeing with the need for a higher levy, is threatening to block legislation in parliament's upper house in hopes of forcing a general election.
最大的反對黨（注：自民黨）雖然同意有提高稅收的需要，但威脅要在上議院阻止法案（通過），希望能迫使（民主黨進行）換屆選舉。
Japan logged a trade deficit of 2.49 trillion yen ($32 billion) for 2011, Ministry of Finance data showed, the first annual deficit since 1980, after the economy was hit by the shock of rising oil prices.
日本錄得2011年的貿易赤字是2.49萬億日元（約32億美元），財務部的數據顯示，在經濟受到石油價格上漲的沖擊后，這是自1980年以來的首次出現年度赤字。
Were Japan to run a current account deficit, it would spell trouble because it would mean the country cannot finance its huge public debt -- already twice the size of its $5 trillion economy -- without overseas funds.
如果日本在賬面上出現赤字，它會帶來麻煩，因為這意味著該國無法支付其龐大的公共債務 - 已經兩倍于其5萬億美元的經濟規模 - 不含海外資金。             
Japanese investors currently hold about 95 percent of Japan's government bonds, which lends some stability to an otherwise unsustainable debt burden.
日本投資者目前持有約95％的日本國債，這給予以其他方式難以承受的債務負擔一定的穩定性。
Domestic buyers are less likely to dump debt at the first whiff of economic trouble, unlike foreign investors, as Europe's debt crisis has shown.
其國內買家在首波經濟麻煩的時候不太可能轉儲債務，不像外國的投資者，就如歐洲債務危機所展示的那樣。
The trade data helped send the yen to a one-month low against the dollar and the euro on Wednesday.
貿易數據推動周三日元兌美元和歐元達到一個月的低點。
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Graphic on 2011 trade data 2011年貿易數據圖表 http://link.reuters.com/mev26s

Dec trade balance 月貿易余額 http://link.reuters.com/vyq65s

Exports by destination 地區出口 產業空心化，人口老齡化
Total exports shrank 2.7 percent last year while imports surged 12.0 percent, reflecting reduced earnings from goods and services and higher spending on crude and fuel oil. Annual imports of liquefied natural gas hit a record high.
（日本）出口總額去年下跌2.7％，而進口增長了12.0％，反映了商品與服務的收益減少和更高的原油和燃油消費。年進口液化天然氣量創下了歷史新高。             
In a sign of the continuing pain from slowing global growth, exports fell 8.0 percent in December from a year earlier, roughly matching a median market forecast for a 7.9 percent drop, due partly to weak shipments of electronics parts.
作為因全球經濟增長放緩持續痛苦的信號，出口12月比去年同期下降了8.0％，大致符合市場預估的下降7.9％，部分原因是由于電子零件的出貨量疲弱。
Imports rose 8.1 percent in December from a year earlier, in line with a 8.0 percent annual gain expected, bringing the trade balance to a deficit of 205.1 billion yen, against 139.7 billion yen expected. It marked the third straight month of deficits.
12月進口較去年同期增長8.1％，和8.0％的年出口增長基本持平，使得貿易余額以205.1億日元支出對139.7億日元收入。這標志著連續第三個月的赤字。
Japan managed to sustain annual trade surpluses through the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s and the post-Lehman Brothers global recession that started in late 2008, which makes the 2011 dip into deficit all the more dramatic.
日本經歷過20世紀90年代后期的亞洲金融危機和2008年年底開始的雷曼兄弟導致的全球經濟衰退后仍維持持續的年度貿易盈余，這使得其在2011年跌入赤字更具戲劇性。
A generation ago, Japan was the world's export juggernaut, churning out a stream of innovative products from the likes of Sony and Toyota.
一個世代以前，日本是當時世界上的出口主宰，從如索尼和豐田等公司生產一系列創新產品。
Much like China today, Japan's bulging trade surplus became a source of friction with the United States and other advanced economies, who pressed Tokyo to allow the yen to rise more rapidly in order to reduce the imbalance.
就像今天的中國，日本膨脹的貿易順差成為與美國和其他發達經濟體的摩擦源頭，他們施壓令東京允許日元上升更迅速，以減少失衡。
A 1985 agreement between Japan, the United States and Europe's big economies -- known as the Plaza Accord after the New York hotel where it was signed -- pushed the yen higher against the U.S. dollar.
一個1985年日本，美國和歐洲經濟大國之間的協定- 在紐約酒店簽署后被稱為“廣場協議” - 推動日元兌美元升值。
Many economists argue that sowed the seeds of Japan's current debt woes. After the Plaza Accord, Japan's economy weakened and its central bank slashed interest rates, which contributed to a credit boom that eventually spawned a financial crisis and led to two decades of economic stagnation.
許多經濟學家認為這（廣場協議）為日本目前的債務危機埋下了禍根。廣場協議后，日本經濟減弱，央行降息，這加劇了信貸熱潮并最終催生了金融危機以及導致了二十年的經濟停滯。
Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Tuesday he did not expect trade deficits to become a pattern, and did not foresee the country's current account balance tipping into the red in the near future.
日本銀行行長長白川方明周二表示，他不認為貿易赤字會成為一個模式，而且沒有預測認為該國賬面在不久的將來會變成紅色。
But Japan's days of logging huge trade surpluses may be over as it relies more on fuel imports and manufacturers move production offshore to cope with rising costs and a strong yen, a trend that may weaken the Japanese currency longer term.
但日本記錄巨額貿易盈余的日子可能會結束，因為它對進口燃料更加依賴，并且制造商把生產移往境外，以應付成本上升和強勢日元，這一趨勢可能會較長期的削弱日本貨幣。
A fast-ageing population also means a growing number of elderly Japanese will be running down their savings.
快速老齡化的人口也意味著越來越多的日本老人將動用自己的積蓄。
Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura said the government wants to closely watch the trend of exports and imports.
內閣官房長官藤村修表示，政府想要密切關注出口和進口的趨勢。
"There are worries that the yen's strength is driving Japanese industry to go abroad," said Fujimura. "We have to create new industries ... implement comprehensive steps to boost growth. It is important to secure employment within the nation."
“我們擔心日元的強勢正驅使日本產業轉移到國外去，”藤村說。“我們必須要創造新的產業......實施全面的步驟以促進經濟增長。這對于確保國內的就業是重要的。”
($1=77.71 yen)（本文編輯時1美元兌77.71日元）
(Additional writing by Leika Kihara; Editing by Linda Sieg and Emily Kaiser)