美國應從羅馬帝國的衰落中汲取教訓 

英國金融時報

美國政府的高級檢查人員警告說: 美國政府因為其在財政赤字, 長期健保資金不足, 移民和海外軍事承諾方面不可持續的政策和行為而備受煎熬. 如果不采取行動, 就會釀成危機.

美國政府總會計師David Walker發表了一份報告, 對他的國家未來估計非常灰暗. 在報告中, 他列舉了一些他稱為不寒而栗的長期景象.

這其中包括戲劇性的加稅, 政府服務的削減和外國政府大規模拋售美國債券.

與羅馬帝國的終結相提并論, Walker警告美國現在的狀況及拖垮羅馬的因素極為相似, 諸如國內道德價值和政治文明(?)的下降, 在外國土地上軍事存在過度, 而對國外軍事存在信心過度, 以及中央政府在財政上不負責任.

"看上去很熟悉嗎?" Walker說："我的觀點, 現在正是時候, (我們需要)學習歷史和采取行動確保美國成為第一個經過時間檢驗(的國家)."

Walker的觀點很有分量, 因為他是無黨派人士, 負責政府會計局(?), 而該局被視為美國國會的調查部門.

該局大多數的研究由立法機關委托, 大約有百分之十, 包括他最新警告的這一項是由他本人推動的.

在財經時報的采訪中, Walker說以前他曾經提到過一些問題, 但他現在想"提高聲音". 這些問題中有一些對政府中的一些人過于敏感而不能提及他們的名字.
"我試圖發出警告, 喚醒(大家)."他說:"作為總會計師,我有能力大尺度地觀察, 能夠提出一些別人不愿而在很多情況下不能夠提出的問題."

"其中一項關注很顯然, 我們是一個偉大的國家, 但我們面對主要的持續性挑戰, 卻沒有認真對待."Walker說, 他在克林頓當政時被任命, 有15年任期.
財政不平衡意味著美國正在通往債務爆炸的路上.

嬰兒潮一代正在退休, 螺旋上漲的健保費用, 直線下降的儲蓄率和越來越依賴外國借款人, 我們正面對前所未有的財政危險."
目前美國對教育, 能源, 環境, 移民和伊拉克的政策不能持續.

我們的繁榮對我們的基礎設施提出了更高的要求. 從高路機場到上下水系統的現代化需要數以十億記的美元.
Walker說明年春天他可以為總統參選人們做簡報.

"他們需要將財政責任和社會公正作為最優先(的任務)之一. 如果他們能這樣做, 我想我們還有機會扭轉局面; 如果他們不這樣做, 我想一場嚴重危機的危險會很高.

Learn from the fall of Rome, US warned
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/80fa0a2c-49ef-11dc-9ffe-0000779fd2ac.html

By Jeremy Grant in Washington

Published: August 14 2007 00:06 | Last updated: August 14 2007 00:06

The US government is on a ‘burning platform’ of unsustainable policies and practices with fiscal deficits, chronic healthcare underfunding, immigration and overseas military commitments threatening a crisis if action is not taken soon, the country’s top government inspector has warned.

David Walker, comptroller general of the US, issued the unusually downbeat assessment of his country’s future in a report that lays out what he called “chilling long-term simulations”.

These include “dramatic” tax rises, slashed government services and the large-scale dumping by foreign governments of holdings of US debt.

Drawing parallels with the end of the Roman empire, Mr Walker warned there were “striking similarities” between America’s current situation and the factors that brought down Rome, including “declining moral values and political civility at home, an over-confident and over-extended military in foreign lands and fiscal irresponsibility by the central government”.

“Sound familiar?” Mr Walker said. “In my view, it’s time to learn from history and take steps to ensure the American Republic is the first to stand the test of time.”

Mr Walker’s views carry weight because he is a non-partisan figure in charge of the Government Accountability Office, often described as the investigative arm of the US Congress.

While most of its studies are commissioned by legislators, about 10 per cent – such as the one containing his latest warnings – are initiated by the comptroller general himself.

In an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Walker said he had mentioned some of the issues before but now wanted to “turn up the volume”. Some of them were too sensitive for others in government to “have their name associated with”.

“I’m trying to sound an alarm and issue a wake-up call,” he said. “As comptroller general I’ve got an ability to look longer-range and take on issues that others may be hesitant, and in many cases may not be in a position, to take on.

“One of the concerns is obviously we are a great country but we face major sustainability challenges that we are not taking seriously enough,” said Mr Walker, who was appointed during the Clinton administration to the post, which carries a 15-year term.

The fiscal imbalance meant the US was “on a path toward an explosion of debt”.

“With the looming retirement of baby boomers, spiralling healthcare costs, plummeting savings rates and increasing reliance on foreign lenders, we face unprecedented fiscal risks,” said Mr Walker, a former senior executive at PwC auditing firm.

Current US policy on education, energy, the environment, immigration and Iraq also was on an “unsustainable path”.

“Our very prosperity is placing greater demands on our physical infrastructure. Billions of dollars will be needed to modernise everything from highways and airports to water and sewage systems. The recent bridge collapse in Minneapolis was a sobering wake-up call.”

Mr Walker said he would offer to brief the would-be presidential candidates next spring.

“They need to make fiscal responsibility and inter-generational equity one of their top priorities. If they do, I think we have a chance to turn this around but if they don’t, I think the risk of a serious crisis rises considerably”.

× 烏有之鄉 WYZXWK.COM

您的打賞將用于網站日常運行與維護。
幫助我們辦好網站，宣傳紅色文化！

歡迎掃描下方二維碼，訂閱烏有之鄉網刊微信公眾號