國(guó)際清算銀行警告信用狂歡可能造成３０年代級(jí)別的大衰退
２００７年６月２５日
國(guó)際清算銀行發(fā)出警告，多年來(lái)的貨幣寬松政策已經(jīng)產(chǎn)生了危險(xiǎn)的信用泡沫，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)正面臨著另一場(chǎng)１９３０年級(jí)別衰退的危險(xiǎn)比人們料想的更加嚴(yán)重。
幾乎沒有人能事先預(yù)料到１９３０年的大衰退，或９０年代重創(chuàng)日本和東南亞地區(qū)的金融危機(jī)。
事實(shí)上，每一次危機(jī)之前都經(jīng)歷了一段沒有通貨膨脹的黃金歲月，樂觀的情緒使得評(píng)論家們歡呼一個(gè)＂新的時(shí)代＂已經(jīng)到來(lái)。
國(guó)際清算銀行－中央銀行家的銀行，指出了許多令人擔(dān)心的方面，它們包括：海量發(fā)行的信用（債務(wù)）工具，飛升的房地產(chǎn)債務(wù)規(guī)模，投資者對(duì)高度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資的貪婪，國(guó)際貨幣系統(tǒng)嚴(yán)重的失衡狀態(tài)。
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國(guó)際清算銀行警告信用狂歡可能造成３０年代級(jí)別的大衰退
２００７年６月２５日
翻譯翻譯
國(guó)際清算銀行（BIS），世界上最具有權(quán)威的金融機(jī)構(gòu)，最近發(fā)出警告說，多年來(lái)的寬松貨幣政策促發(fā)了一次危險(xiǎn)的信貸泡沫，這將導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟(jì)比人們以為的那樣更加脆弱，最終陷入30年代那樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中去。
BIS說，中國(guó)可能已經(jīng)重現(xiàn)了80年代日本所經(jīng)歷的災(zāi)難性的錯(cuò)誤。
BIS說，“其實(shí)沒有人曾經(jīng)預(yù)言到30年代的大衰退，也沒有誰(shuí)預(yù)見到90年代重挫日本和東南亞發(fā)展的那場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。事實(shí)上，每一次經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)轉(zhuǎn)折之前，都有一段無(wú)通脹增長(zhǎng)的時(shí)期，繁榮的景象使眾多的評(píng)論家相信，‘一個(gè)新的時(shí)代到來(lái)了’。”
作為各國(guó)央行的中央銀行，BIS指出一系列令人擔(dān)憂的信號(hào)已經(jīng)開始匯聚出現(xiàn)，比如發(fā)行了大量的新型信貸工具，房產(chǎn)債務(wù)節(jié)節(jié)攀升，投資者對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)全然不顧，以及世界貨幣體制徘徊不去的失衡。
每次經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的爆發(fā)，都掩藏在良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)下。在轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)上，影響轉(zhuǎn)折的最后一件事情對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)造成的影響所花費(fèi)的代價(jià)要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于通常估計(jì)的程度。
BIS說中國(guó)可能已經(jīng)重現(xiàn)了80年代日本所經(jīng)歷的災(zāi)難性的錯(cuò)誤。當(dāng)時(shí)，東京任由流動(dòng)性泛濫而視而不見。
“中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)看上去正在展現(xiàn)出非常類似而又令人不安的癥狀，” BIS說，例如，信貸膨脹、資產(chǎn)價(jià)格高漲，以及重工業(yè)領(lǐng)域內(nèi)的“巨量投資”。
“中國(guó)40%的國(guó)企處于虧損狀態(tài)，將銀行業(yè)置于崩潰的壓力之下。”
它引用中國(guó)總理溫家寶的話說，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是“不穩(wěn)定、不平衡、不和諧、不可持續(xù)的”。
BIS也含蓄的批評(píng)了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)。它說作為央行，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)縱容資產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫膨脹，僅僅因?yàn)樗俣ㄅ菽院罂梢园踩摹扒宄簟薄＃ǚg插嘴：“假定”這個(gè)詞用得很含蓄，很藝術(shù)。）這種策略或多或少來(lái)自美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)前任主席格林斯潘在網(wǎng)絡(luò)泡沫破裂之后的做法。BIS說，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)德這一行徑引起了人們的懷疑。（翻譯插嘴：不知道誰(shuí)在“懷疑”，又在“懷疑”什么。）
它說這種方法在30年代的美國(guó)和90年代的日本都已經(jīng)遭遇了失敗，因?yàn)檫^量的債務(wù)和投資既產(chǎn)生了繁榮年代，也會(huì)帶來(lái)致命的后果。（翻譯插嘴：這句話很中肯。用借債來(lái)投資，既有投資的好處，又有債務(wù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。最糟的結(jié)果應(yīng)該就是投資所得全被債主掠取。貨幣戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的核心就在這里。主張用黃金作為貨幣的擔(dān)保，本質(zhì)在于確保投資是以已有的積累為基礎(chǔ)，而不是以債務(wù)為基礎(chǔ)。）
在危機(jī)中降低利率會(huì)有所助益，但這樣做有一個(gè)后果就是，財(cái)富從債權(quán)人裝移到了債務(wù)人那里，然后“吞下未來(lái)更糟糕的苦果”。（翻譯插嘴：我看這句話恐怕是指鹿為馬。）
BIS說，現(xiàn)在還不能清除的判斷美國(guó)是否能夠擺脫最近的經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的后果，比如約占 GDP總值6.5%的經(jīng)常賬戶赤字，從2001年到2005年間飛漲的四萬(wàn)億美元外債，以及前所未有的儲(chǔ)蓄率下降。“美元明顯有一個(gè)脆弱的地方，那就是遭遇私有領(lǐng)域信心的突然降低。”BIS說。
BIS說去年創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄地發(fā)行了4700億美元的抵押貸款合同（CDO），而且還有5240億美元“草擬中”的CDO。“無(wú)論在何地，抵押貸款都變得越來(lái)越容易，對(duì)借方的約束條款也越來(lái)越輕松。只是最近幾個(gè)月才變得困難。”
CDO是一種類似債券一樣的金融產(chǎn)品，它將抵押貸款和其他形式的債權(quán)打包出售。
去年全球范圍內(nèi)企業(yè)合并和接管價(jià)值總額高達(dá)4.1萬(wàn)億美元。
杠桿收購(gòu)總額達(dá)到了7530億美元，其中的平均債務(wù)對(duì)現(xiàn)金流的比率高達(dá)5：4。
“早晚，信貸循環(huán)會(huì)掉頭，拖欠率會(huì)升高。”BIS說
“在私有資產(chǎn)交易中使用的杠桿水平已經(jīng)引起了他們長(zhǎng)期可持續(xù)性方面的問題。策略取決于低成本籌資的能力。”它說。
這恐怕不會(huì)持續(xù)多久了。（翻譯插嘴：這句話作為結(jié)尾，讓人不寒而栗阿。）
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/06/25/cncredit125.xml
BIS warns of Great Depression dangers from credit spree
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 9:02am BST 25/06/2007
The Bank for International Settlements, the world's most prestigious financial body, has warned that years of loose monetary policy has fuelled a dangerous credit bubble, leaving the global economy more vulnerable to another 1930s-style slump than generally understood.
The BIS said China may have repeated the disastrous errors made by Japan in the 1980s
"Virtually nobody foresaw the Great Depression of the 1930s, or the crises which affected Japan and southeast Asia in the early and late 1990s. In fact, each downturn was preceded by a period of non-inflationary growth exuberant enough to lead many commentators to suggest that a 'new era' had arrived", said the bank.
The BIS, the ultimate bank of central bankers, pointed to a confluence a worrying signs, citing mass issuance of new-fangled credit instruments, soaring levels of household debt, extreme appetite for risk shown by investors, and entrenched imbalances in the world currency system.
"Behind each set of concerns lurks the common factor of highly accommodating financial conditions. Tail events affecting the global economy might at some point have much higher costs than is commonly supposed," it said.
The BIS said China may have repeated the disastrous errors made by Japan in the 1980s when Tokyo let rip with excess liquidity.
"The Chinese economy seems to be demonstrating very similar, disquieting symptoms," it said, citing ballooning credit, an asset boom, and "massive investments" in heavy industry.
Some 40pc of China's state-owned enterprises are loss-making, exposing the banking system to likely stress in a downturn.
It said China's growth was "unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable", borrowing a line from Chinese premier Wen Jiabao
In a thinly-veiled rebuke to the US Federal Reserve, the BIS said central banks were starting to doubt the wisdom of letting asset bubbles build up on the assumption that they could safely be "cleaned up" afterwards - which was more or less the strategy pursued by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan after the dotcom bust.
It said this approach had failed in the US in 1930 and in Japan in 1991 because excess debt and investment built up in the boom years had suffocating effects.
While cutting interest rates in such a crisis may help, it has the effect of transferring wealth from creditors to debtors and "sowing the seeds for more serious problems further ahead."
The bank said it was far from clear whether the US would be able to shrug off the consequences of its latest imbalances, citing a current account deficit running at 6.5pc of GDP, a rise in US external liabilities by over $4 trillion from 2001 to 2005, and an unpredented drop in the savings rate. "The dollar clearly remains vulnerable to a sudden loss of private sector confidence," it said.
The BIS said last year's record issuance of $470bn in collateralized debt obligations (CDO), and a further $524bn in "synthetic" CDOs had effectively opened the lending taps even further. "Mortgage credit has become more available and on easier terms to borrowers almost everywhere. Only in recent months has the downside become more apparent," it said.
CDO's are bond-like packages of mortgages and other forms of debt. The BIS said banks transfer the exposure to buyers of the securities, giving them little incentive to assess risk or carry out due diligence.
Mergers and takeovers reached $4.1 trillion worldwide last year.
Leveraged buy-outs touched $753bn, with an average debt/cash flow ratio hitting a record 5:4.
"Sooner or later the credit cycle will turn and default rates will begin to rise," said the bank.
"The levels of leverage employed in private equity transactions have raised questions about their longer-term sustainability. The strategy depends on the availability of cheap funding," it said.
That may not last much longer.
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